Are Betting Lines Better Predictor of Winner of US Presidential Election than Polls…?

It does appear that Romney has gained momentum, but it does not appear to be enough.

At least those that put their money where their mouth is do not think so. Forget the normal polls that are riddled with inaccuracies & biases.

For example, check out the Iowa Electronic Exchange’s (IEM) “Winner Take All” market. A contract for Mitt Romney sells for 34.5 cents meaning that traders believe there is a 34.5% probability that Romeny will win, up substantially from 18.6 cents–85% increase in price.

As such, Obama sells for 66 cents meaning that traders believe there is a 66% probability he will win popular vote.

Similar results can be found on InTrade & also at some overseas betting sites, like OddsCheckers.

It appears that the “smart money” puts the odds in favor of “Four More Years”.

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About christopher

Content of "Natural Order" attempts to reflect the commitment of Universidad Francisco Marroquin to support the development of a society of free & responsible individuals. The principal commentator for this blog is Christopher Lingle.

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